Carlton's missing man
Carlton's recent slump has coincided with the absence of Andrew Carrazzo, and statistics show that's no great surprise
WHILE Chris Judd and Marc Murphy bring the star power to Carlton's midfield group, statistical analysis shows they don't shine as brightly without the grunt that Andrew Carrazzo adds to the mix.
Carrazzo's absence with a shoulder injury, sustained in the opening minutes of Carlton's round four loss to Essendon, has coincided with a dizzying drop off in key possession stats for the Blues.
When Carlton swept all before it in the first three rounds of the season, Brett Ratten's team averaged 73 more disposals, 24 more contested possessions and 12 more clearances than the opposition, which ranked them first in the competition in each of those statistical categories according to Champion Data.
From rounds four to eight, which saw the Blues lose three games and relinquish premiership favouritism, they have averaged 12 fewer total disposals (12th in the league), two fewer contested possessions (12th) and seven fewer clearances (18th) than their opponents.
That drop-off has been reflected in the media commentary that has seen Carlton labelled as a skilled but soft team that will be unable to execute its attacking game plan in the face of overt physical aggression.
Of course, it would be overly simplistic to lay Carlton's woes over the past month at the feet of one man, but former teammate Nick Stevens says the impact of Carrazzo's loss shouldn't be underestimated.
"Over the years he's probably one of the most competitive people I've played with," Stevens, who played 104 games for the Blues between 2004 and 2009, says.
"Regardless of whether it was at training or in a game he is always super-competitive - he never ever says die.
"I remember when we used to do wrestling or anything like that he was just like a bull. He's as strong as anything for his size. He's built well, but there's not a great deal of him really."
Carrazzo, 28, was enjoying a purple patch of form before his untimely departure.
He was averaging 30 disposals a game - 17 of which were contested - and eight clearances, but his true value to the team was perhaps better illustrated by his nullifying roles that saw him effectively shut out star onballers Scott Pendlebury and Simon Black as well as up-and-comer Dustin Martin.
"I do think he's most valuable when he's playing on the opposition's best ball winner," Stevens says.
"I definitely think they've missed him in terms of his ability to nullify the opposition's best onballer and then get a lot of that first contested possession.
"A lot of people reckon he's dangerous when he's getting possessions in the 30s, but I actually think he's more dangerous when he's concentrating on cutting out the opposition's key ball winner and getting 20 or so contested possessions himself.
"His game has really improved in terms of winning that first possession and giving the hand-off to Murphy, Gibbs and these sorts of guys."
Despite winning Carlton's best and fairest count in 2007, Carrazzo has had to work hard to overcome the well-documented deficiencies in his game. His latest absence from the side has highlighted how far he's come as a footballer.
"He got a bit maligned early on because of his disposal - he got a lot of ball, but gave it back a lot," Stevens says.
"But he really knows what his strengths and weaknesses are now and he plays to them really well.
"He really does complement the midfielders that they have with the style of game that he plays now."
Carrazzo is back running after surgery to repair a fractured shoulder blade, but is still listed as four to five weeks away from returning on the club's official website.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs